Seasonality of Sourcing from China: When to Order

The price and lead time of the exact same order can differ noticeably depending on which month you place it — not because of market fluctuations, but because of a predictable calendar of Chinese holidays and logistics demand peaks. Here's how to plan a purchase around seasonality instead of running into it after the fact.

Chinese New Year — the main factor on the calendar

The dates shift every year (usually late January to mid-February), but the effect is predictable: most factories halt production for one to three weeks, and many workers travel home to other regions for even longer, not always returning to the same job right after the holiday. In the month to six weeks before Chinese New Year, factories rush to close out current orders, sharply increasing production line load and, as a result, lead times for new orders.

How to plan an order around Chinese New Year

It's best to place an order either well ahead of the peak pre-holiday month (2-3 months out) or right after production has fully recovered from the break — usually 3-4 weeks after the holiday itself. Orders placed 2-4 weeks before Chinese New Year risk either missing the production window before the shutdown, or getting the finished batch delayed by the entire holiday period plus the time it takes to ramp back up.

Peak season for sea freight

Separate from Chinese holidays, there's a peak logistics season — usually August through October, when companies worldwide are preparing stock for winter sales and the holiday season in their own countries. During this period, sea freight rates can rise 1.5-2x, and available vessel space becomes noticeably tighter — book space 2-3 weeks in advance, not at the last minute.

How seasonality affects not just logistics, but product price

Raw materials are also subject to seasonal swings — for example, prices for certain textiles shift with cotton harvest cycles, and electronic component costs can rise ahead of major new device launches from large brands that buy up production capacity in advance. It's worth asking the supplier not just for the current price, but if possible for the trend over the past few months, to understand whether you're catching a favorable window.

Seasonality of your own product

If your product itself is seasonal — holiday goods, summer clothing, winter gear — count backward from the date the product needs to be in your warehouse ready for sale, and subtract production, shipping, and customs clearance, with a buffer for possible delays from Chinese holidays or peak logistics season. Last-minute planning for a seasonal product is one of the most common reasons a batch arrives after the sales peak has already passed.

A practical yearly calendar

November-December — a good time to place orders for spring, production is calm, factories are filling their schedule for the next year. January-first half of February — avoid new orders with a short timeline unless the batch was already launched earlier. March-May — usually a calm period, a good window for mid-term planning. June-July — start booking logistics early if shipping is planned for the peak period. August-October — peak logistics season, budget for higher freight rates and book space in advance.